Aggressive Hot and Dry Forecasts for Europe

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Thursday June 18, 2026

Highlight: Southern Brazil coffee freeze risk back on the table for days 6-10; Aggressive hot and dry forecasts for Europe. Rainy/cool Midwest U.S.

Fig. 1-2: GFS+ECM 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecast and GFS ENS risk of <32F in the 6-10-day period.

Discussion: The on-and-off freeze potential for the far southern coffee growing areas in Brazil is on again as cold risk appears in the 6-10-day period raising forecast confidence. (Fig. 1). The risk of <32F increases substantially east of Paraguay possibly reaching the southern border of the coffee areas (Fig. 2).

Forecast models continue to make the case for developing and intensifying drought across much of Europe given continued hot and mostly dry 15-day forecasts (Fig. 3-4) and (ECM) 16-30-day forecasts (Fig. 5-6).

In the U.S., outlooks stay cool and wet for much of the U.S. AG Belt through 15 days (Fig. 7-8).

Fig. 3-4: AIFS ENS hot and dry 15-day outlook for Europe.

Fig. 5-6: ECM maintains a hot pattern in Europe during the 16-30-day period with dryness Eastern Europe and some shower activity in the Southwest.

Fig. 7-8: GFS 15-day temperature and precipitation anomalies outlook for the U.S. AG Belt.