Major Rainfall Event East Texas to Louisiana/Mississippi This Week

Climate Impact Company Early U.S. Notes

Issued: Monday June 15, 2026

Highlight: Major rainfall event for East Texas across Louisiana to Mississippi this week possibly inspired by a midweek tropical system.

Fig. 1-3: NOAA/WPC U.S. 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast.

Discussion: Remnants of a potent tropical wave are located over Southern Texas, and the attendant low-pressure area may drift off the Central Texas Coast midweek and become a tropical depression before moving back inland the northwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Regardless, this system enhances an extreme rainfall event forecast for the length of the Texas Coast the next 3 days (Fig. 1) and East Texas to Mississippi for THU/FRI (Fig. 2). NOAA/WPC indicates potential for 15+ inches of rain near and east of Houston this week with 5-10 in. from Corpus Christi, TX to Jackson, MS. Severe storms producing heavy rain is likely in the Midwest States Wednesday and next weekend in the Missouri Valley (Fig. 3).

NOAA/SPC projects a potential major severe weather outbreak in the Midwest States Wednesday (Fig. 4) shifting across the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday (Fig. 5).

The East spikes hot ahead of Thursday’s severe storms followed by a cooler regime, coolest in the Midwest States. However, a “sneaky” spiking hot day in late June is possible in the Mid-Atlantic region as suggested by the Philadelphia 15-day temperature outlook (Fig. 6).

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast shifts cooler than normal next week (Fig. 7). Entering early July is warmer with 2 models suggesting continuation of a warming trend.

Fig. 4-5: The next severe weather events are forecast for Wednesday/Thursday.

Fig. 6: The Philadelphia 15-day temperature forecast utilizing all models.

Fig. 7: The U.S. population weight CDD forecast for the U.S. utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparison with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year climatology.