Extreme Heat in Europe Eases by Early July

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Tuesday June 23, 2026

Highlight: Europe heat suppressed in early July due to NAO phase change. Upper ridge likely to return in July.

Discussion: The record heat across Europe, centered on France, roars on this week likely to last through June before a pattern change that shifts temperatures toward normal (Fig. 1). The less hot pattern change is driven by a shift in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) from positive to negative phase (Fig. 2). The NAO change also brings some rain which is scattered across Europe in the 7-day outlook (Fig. 3) becoming more widespread in the 8-14-day period (Fig. 4). Will the hot pattern return? Yes! However, the upper ridge may be farther east when returning during the peak climatological heat of summer during mid-July (Fig. 5).

Fig. 1: Europe 15-day population weight daily temperature forecast.

Fig. 2: The 15-day North Atlantic oscillation forecast indicates a phase change.

Fig. 3-4: ECM 1-7-day and 8-14-day rainfall forecasts across Europe.

Fig. 5: The AI Graph Cast 500 MB anomaly forecast for week-3 ahead (July 13-20).