ECMWF Is Windy California and Texas to Midwest U.S. in July 2026

Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report

Issued: Thursday June 18, 2026

Highlight: Extended range is warmer in some areas but forecast confidence is lower.

Charts of the day: PJM-East extended range returning heat risk lowers; July 2026 wind forecast.

Discussion: Today’s 15-day daily average temperature forecast for PJM-East reveals lower risk of regenerating heat late in June. The risk of returning marginal heat is delayed until July 1^st. ECMWF projects elevated risk of high wind conditions across Texas to the Midwest and into California during July 2026.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June 23-27, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: The Midwest stays cool while the South-central States are rain-cooled during the 6-10-day period. Western heat is maintained.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June 28-July 2, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: The Northwest cools significantly in the 11-15-day outlook while Midwest turns much warmer. The forecast is hot in the Southwest and a period of heat is likely in the Mid-Atlantic late in the period.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: Heavy rain in the South-central and Northeast U.S. is indicated in the 6-10-day period. The Northeast rain helps to ease coastal drought. Wet weather extends across the Great Lakes region and into New England in the 11-15-day period.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid July 3-7, 2026

Discussion: Anomalous heat in the Northwest/West and Carolinas is projected by ECM. Caveat? Southwest may be drier and hotter.