News
06/25/2026, 1:55 pm EDT

Mid-Atlantic Drought is a Worry! Influence on Excessive Heat Risk for Mid-Summer!

Severe drought in the Mid-Atlantic region is a significant concern as July approaches. The risk of over-achieving heat is significantly elevated across a large drought area during July. The hot bias provided by extreme dry soil moisture can easily overwhelm synoptic level forecasts and that’s the concern in July for the Mid-Atlantic region. The 12Z GFS Mid-Atlantic heat is hard to ignore.
06/25/2026, 8:00 am EDT

Climbing Cooling Degree Days for Early July in U.S.

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast has shifted significantly hotter for the week ending July 9th. The consensus is near 100 CDD, almost 15 CDD warmer than the 10-year normal.
06/25/2026, 7:58 am EDT

North Atlantic Warm Hole Correlated With Europe Heat Risk; Expect Repeat in July and August

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is vividly displayed in daily sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) analysis centered south of Greenland and extending southwestward while compensating marine heatwaves (MHW) are present off the Europe West Coast, record warm in the Mediterranean Sea, with additional MHW’s in the Norwegian Sea and North Sea to Baltic Sea. The SSTA regime described is semi-permanent since 2015 and well-correlated to the tendency for amplified upper-level high pressure ridge areas during summertime.
06/24/2026, 9:06 am EDT

Check On North Atlantic Basin SSTA Pattern

The daily North Atlantic basin SSTA analysis is mixed with a large subtropical marine heatwave (MHW) east of Florida and a large North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south of Greenland extending southwestward to the Northeast Coast.