El Nino Dry Climate Not Yet in Australia
06/04/2026, 2:46 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Midday Update
Issued: Friday June 5, 2026
Highlight: ECM “monthlies” indicate hot/dry climate mid-to-late summer Great Plains. 12Z GFS cools the Central U.S., East turns wet.
Fig. 1-2: ECM “monthlies” were issued today. The JUL-26 outlook emphasizes hot and dry weather in the Great Plains.
Fig. 3-4: ECM “monthlies” were issued today. The AUG-26 outlook continues to emphasize hot and dry weather in the Great Plains.
Fig. 5-7: The 12Z GFS 15-day U.S. rainfall amount projection.
Discussion: Earlier today, the once per month ECM “monthlies” were issued and the JUL/AUG forecast implicate the Great Plains for a hot and dry weather pattern (Fig. 1-4). The 12Z GFS U.S. medium range temperature anomaly forecast is cooler in the Great Plains while East heat slowly fades, and California heat expands (Fig. 5-6). The East is potentially very wet including a possible tropical system in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico (Fig. 7).
| CDD EIA End | Forecast | 12-Hour Change | 24-Hour Change | 30-Year Normal | 10-Year Normal |
| 6/11 | 64.8 | -0.4 | +1.8 | 49.2 | 53.8 |
| 6/18 | 66.0 | +2.7 | -8.2 | 56.7 | 62.6 |
| 6/25 | 71.6 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 64.3 | 71.6 |
Table 1: The midday 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD projections through late June.