India To Observe Partially Failed Wet Monsoon Next 3 Months; Drought Central India

Climate Impact Company Month 1-4 Ahead Forecast

India

Issued: Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Highlight: El Nino dryness expected; Central/West India drought likely to emerge/strengthen.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 precipitation outlook for India is updated. The forecast is driven primarily by warm ENSO analog years and partially by marginally positive phase Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD). The outlook does not completely fail the wet monsoon due to impacts of El Nino. However, key crop areas in Central India are likely to encounter developing and strengthening drought during the next several months (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog JUL/AUG/SEP 2026 precipitation anomaly outlook.

Climate discussion: During the past week, dry weather has affected most of India (Fig. 2). Drought conditions are emerging affecting about 25% of the nation, mainly central and western sectors (Fig. 3). Although support from the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is weak, 15-day forecasts are quite wet across much of India possibly excluding far western sections where drought is developing (Fig. 4). Extended-range (16-30-day) forecasts are drier with wet weather retreating to the northeast quadrant of the nation (Fig. 5).

Dry climate, and a possible failed wet monsoon due to impacts of El Nino would generate during JUL/AUG once the El Nino climate has formed fully. Aggressive positive phase global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM), a signature of an El Nino climate, is expected to evolve beginning next week (Fig. 6).

Currently, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is weak negative. A weak positive phase is forecast by Australia Bureau of Meteorology for JUL/AUG (Fig. 7). Other forecast models are stronger with the positive phase. If +IOD develops, wet interference with El Nino dryness occurs. If IOD stays near neutral, El Nino drying effect is stronger. The month 1-4 ahead outlook is generated based on heavily weighting El Nino with slight influence of +IOD.

Fig. 2-3: The 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations and daily soil moisture anomaly analysis for Asia with focus on India.

Fig. 4-5: ECM ENS 15-day percent normal rainfall forecast across India and the ECM 16-30-day percent normal outlook across India.

Fig. 6-7: The global atmospheric angular momentum 15-day forecast and Australia Bureau of Meteorology outlook for the Indian Ocean dipole.

July through October 2026: Dryness, inspired by an El Nino climate, is vividly displayed across most of India during the next 4 months. In July, dryness is most likely across central/south-central India with heavy rains in the far northeast sector (Fig. 8). In August, dry risk expands except northeastern India stays wet (Fig. 9). During September, the dryness stretches across the northern half of India while heavy rain threatens to central and southern portion of the East Coast (Fig. 10). Widespread dryness affects southern and eastern India in October (Fig. 11). Drought affecting Central India crops will emerge during the summer 2026 season.

Fig. 8-11: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog July through October 2026 monthly precipitation anomaly outlooks.