India To Observe Partially Failed Wet Monsoon Next 3 Months; Drought Central India
06/23/2026, 1:06 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Midday Update
Issued: Thursday June 25, 2026
The concern: A severe Mid-Atlantic drought…historically, amplified hot weather risk! 12Z GFS rips 116 CDD for July 3-9!
Fig. 1-3: U.S. Drought Monitor identifies Mid-Atlantic region in severe drought and the Mid-Atlantic is adjusted hotter in the medium range.
Discussion: Extended range models, well into July want to cool the East especially AI models. But a severe drought in the Mid-Atlantic region is a significant concern as July approaches. The risk of over-achieving heat is significantly elevated across a large drought area during July. The hot bias provided by extreme dry soil moisture can easily overwhelm synoptic level forecasts and that’s the concern in July for the Mid-Atlantic region. The 12Z GFS Mid-Atlantic heat is hard to ignore.
| CDD EIA End | Forecast | 12-Hour Change | 24-Hour Change | 30-Year Normal | 10-Year Normal |
| 6/25 | 55.7 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 64.3 | 71.6 |
| 7/2 | 85.2 | +0.7 | +5.7 | 71.5 | 79.5 |
| 7/9 | 116.3 | +14.2 | +17.6 | 77.3 | 85.3 |
Table 1: The midday 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast into early July.