Lack of Rain Indonesia, India, and (now) Tropical West Africa

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Monday October 19, 2026

Highlight: Indonesia, India, and (more) recently West Africa tropics drought update, Southeast Brazil rains, and Queensland (and vicinity) wet weather.

Fig. 1: Daily soil moisture analysis reveals where drought is strongest in the subtropics/tropics.

Discussion: Lack of rainfall accelerating drought has adversely affected Indonesia palm oil, India wheat, and most recently cocoa growing areas in tropical West Africa (Fig. 1-2). The palm oil damage is devastating with drought encouraging fires and record low water levels. The Indian wet monsoon was about 12% of normal enabling drought in west and south wheat growing areas. Cocoa growing areas in West Africa tropics recently developed quickly.

In South America, wet weather has consolidated in Southern Brazil (except Southeast Brazil) while either side of the wet zone rainfall is below normal (Fig. 3). The 15-day outlook features heavy rain east of Paraguay while Northern Argentina (and Northern Brazil) are drier than normal (Fig. 4).

Heavy rains are forecast for Queensland and much of the Australian East Coast through 10 days (Fig. 5). The 10-day outlook for Europe brings wet weather adding Ukraine (Fig. 6).

Fig. 2: The 90-day rainfall anomalies – global analysis.

Fig. 3-4: South America 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations and 15-day forecast.

Fig. 5-6: South America 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations and 15-day forecast.