Similar JUL-97 to JUL-26 El Nino Strength; But Different Mid-winter Climate Australia
07/15/2026, 4:36 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Europe/Western Russia
Issued: Friday July 17, 2026
Highlight: Southwest Europe shifts wetter. Regenerating heat in August. Western Russia becomes part of the hot/dry pattern.
Charts of the day: Europe climate during the rapidly intensifying 1997 and 2015 El Nino.
Discussion: An intensifying strong El Nino will influence climate, despite Europe’s distance from the equatorial Pacific. Combining 1997 and 2015 (twice due to warmer global oceans) implies the Europe El Nino climate should bias hot and dry Central and East Europe while Southwest/South Europe are wet.
Week-2 Ahead (July 26-August 2, 2026): Europe is temperate; Southwest Europe rainfall.
Discussion: Much of Europe temporarily cools to near normal to close July while anomalous heat has pushed eastward. Southwest Europe receives some much-needed rain.
Week-3 Ahead (August 2-9): Europe rewarms.
Discussion: Anomalous heat regenerates and is widespread. The Black Sea region is dry while Southwest Europe thunderstorms continue.
Week-4 Ahead (August 9-16): Heat is strengthening.
Discussion: As the middle third of August arrives, widespread anomalous heat is strengthening. Dryness is strongest in Western Russia.