Widespread Heat Next 5 Days
07/13/2026, 7:26 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Wednesday July 15, 2026
Highlight: Averaging warmer than normal with patchy rains.
Charts of the day: Australia JUL-26 rainfall, JUL-97 temperature, and comparing El Nino 1997 and 2026 global SSTA
Discussion: So far, rainfall in Australia during recent weeks has averaged above normal in the Southeast while nationally, Australia is slightly warmer than normal in July. Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is accelerating into strong positive phase implying El Nino climate is strengthening. The rate of increasing intensity is close to the MAY/JUN/JUL 1997 signature, eventually leading to the strongest El Nino on record. Interestingly, JUL-97 was cold across much of Australia. The difference? Note the much cooler SSTA surrounding Australia during JUL-97 encouraging upper-level low pressure troughs to deliver chilly air. During middle 2026, marine heatwaves surround Australia encouraging milder high pressure.
Week-2 Ahead (July 26-August 2, 2026): Northern rains; Warmer than normal.
Discussion: Upper trough encourages wet weather across the North although most of the nation is warmer than normal.
Week-3 Ahead (August 2-9): Staying warmer than normal.
Discussion: Staying warmer than normal (except North Coast) with patchy wet weather for Western Australia and New South Wales.
Week-4 Ahead (August 9-16): Drier, a little cooler.
Discussion: A drier national climate is forecast as the middle third of August arrives. Nationally, temperatures average near normal.