Widespread Heat Next 5 Days

Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report

Issued: Monday July 13, 2026

Highlight: Trending temperate; Heat begins to rebuild days 16-20.

Charts of the day: A hot mid-July week ahead.

Discussion: GFS ENS projects patchy >100F risk across many parts of the U.S. through the next 5 days while much of the nation observes >95F.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid July 18-22, 2026 (CMC OP and 24-hour change)

Discussion: CMC OP and CMC ENS each have wide margins of best skill scores forecast U.S. temperature in July, so far. Using the CMC OP, the 6-10-day forecast is very warm in the Great Plains but notably cooler since late last week in the East and Southwest States.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid July 23-27, 2026 (CMC ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: CMC ENS is temperate, one of the cooler models, for the 11-15-day period. Ontario (and vicinity) is cooler than 24 hours ago.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: CMC/CMC ENS rainfall forecasts for the medium range indicate a steadily intensifying West U.S. (wet) monsoon, East Coast thunderstorms days 6-10 lingering days 11-15 in the Northeast, and Upper Midwest/Texas to Mid-south U.S. dryness.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid July 28-August 1, 2026

Discussion: Emerging heat in the Central U.S. is likely while upper-level low pressure lingers on the Northwest and Northeast Coast. The West U.S. wet monsoon is ongoing.