Genevieve First Category 5 Major Hurricane Since 2024 in East Pacific
07/27/2026, 9:18 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Tuesday July 28, 2026
Highlight: Evolution and migration of the next Europe heatwave.
Discussion: During the past week, West-to-Central Europe has received little or no rain (Fig. 1) further aggravating the Europe Drought (Fig. 2). The Black Sea region to Southwest Russia maintains the opposite regime with additional wet weather (and wet soils).
Forecast skill scores for days 1-10 during the past month across Europe are best indicated by AI WX Next V2. In the 11-15-day period, ECM ENS scores No. 1.
A review of AI WX Next V2 forecast for the next 5 days indicates building heat from France and Spain eastward to Eastern Europe (Fig. 3). Dryness streaks northeastward across U.K. to Southern Scandinavia and from Spain to East/Southeast Europe (Fig. 4). In the 6-10-day period, westerly flow aloft pushes the heat eastward through Southwest Russia with the attendant dryness (Fig. 5-6) while Northern Europe is much cooler (and wetter).
Utilizing ECM ENS in the 11-15-day forecast, the heatwave is maintained across Southern Europe and stretches to the Black Sea region (Fig. 7). Dryness is confined to South-central Europe (Fig. 8).
In the 16-30-day period, GFS ENS is regularly the number 1 skill model for Europe. The GFS ENS maintains Southern Europe to Black Sea region anomalous heat (Fig. 9) while the dry bias has shifted to Southeast Europe, The Black Sea Region, and Southwest Russia (Fig. 10). In the 16-30-day period West to North Europe shifts wetter.
Fig. 1-2: The 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations across Europe and daily soil moisture anomalies analysis.
Fig. 3-4: AI Weather Next V2 1-5-day temperature and precipitation anomalies outlook for Europe.
Fig. 5-6: AI Weather Next V2 6-10-day temperature and precipitation anomalies outlook for Europe.
Fig. 7-8: ECM ENS 11-15-day temperature and precipitation anomalies outlook for Europe.
Fig. 9-10: GFS ENS 16-30-day temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast.