U.S. Gas Population Weight HDD Forecast for 2025-26 Cold Season

Climate Impact Company U.S. Winter 2025-26 Gas Population Weight HDD Outlook

Issued: Thursday October 23, 2025

Headline: Cold risk to the Northwest/Central U.S. but doubting the effectiveness of that cold reaching the high population East.

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season compared to the 30-year/10-year climatology.

Discussion: The updated U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for winter 2025-26 (Fig. 1) reveals a warm start to the season as NOV and DEC fall beneath the (warm-biased) 10-year normal. The coldest risk is (clearly) evident in JAN when the HDD projection is equidistant between the 30-year and 10-year normal. FEB and MAR ease back to near the 10-year normal. The probabilistic forecast identifies coldest upside risk for mid-to-late winter (Fig. 2). The largest downside warm risk is also evident during JAN/FEB. The issue is that cold is expected but whether the cold can effectively spread across the high population/energy demand East is in question.

Compared to the last 3 winter seasons, the 2025-26 (HDD) expectations start the cold season warmer than the 10-year normal, similar with (on average) the last 2 years (Fig. 3). The last cold start for the winter season was in 2022. The early season chill during winter 2022-23 was not a precursor of mid-winter which flipped very warm. Recent years have favored coldest risk (compared to normal) during mid-winter. 2 of the past 3 months of February have been much warmer than the 10-year normal while FEB-26 is forecast near the 10-year normal with (very) questionable cold exposure in the East. The CIC winter 2025-26 HDD forecast is warmer than the conventional 30-year normal for each month (Fig. 4).

Two high profile regions for winter HDD forecasts are the Mid-Atlantic States and Texas. The Mid-Atlantic monthly winter 2025-26 HDD forecast runs parallel to the (warm) 10-year normal (Fig. 5). The issue is whether cold air risk, biased mostly to the Central U.S., can infiltrate this region. The forecast, for now, is doubting that risk. Conversely, Texas has cold risk in January and marginal cold risk in February (Fig. 6).

In summary, the Climate Impact Company 2025-26 cold season HDD forecast indicates upside cold risk to the Northwest/Central U.S. but doubts the effectiveness of that cold reaching the high population East.

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight probabilistic HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season.

Fig. 3: The Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season compared to the last 3 winter seasons and 10-year climatology.

Fig. 4: The Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season compared to the last 3 winter seasons and 30-year climatology.

Fig. 5: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 heating season.

Fig. 6: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 heating season.