News
10/29/2025, 4:22 am EDT
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Deciphering South America Weather

A review of the OCT-25 precipitation climate across South America so far reveals a drier than normal regime across Central to Southeast Brazil which justifies ongoing below normal soil moisture observations from NOAA. Argentina has been mixed yielding mostly normal to wetter than normal soil conditions. A wetter Brazil forecast is indicated, initially associated with the ongoing negative Antarctic oscillation, and continuing later in November due to a wet monsoon.
10/27/2025, 9:32 am EDT
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Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phase and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

Recent research regarding “Sensitivity of Easterly QBO’s Boreal Winter Teleconnections and Surface Impacts to SSWs” by Dillon Elsbury, Amy Butler, Yannick Peings, and Gudrun Magnusdottir was reviewed to assess the claim that wintertime SSWs are more common during the easterly phase of QBO. The question is important due to the direct connection of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events causing a split in the polar vortex with southward migration to Eurasia and North America causing arctic air generation and outbreaks for high population middle latitude locations.
10/26/2025, 1:24 pm EDT
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Catastrophic Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa Ahead for Jamaica

Major Hurricane Melissa slowly approaches Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours while intensifying to a category-5 major hurricane. Melissa moves northeastward as a major hurricane across Southern Cuba into midweek with the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay in the dangerous right front quadrant of the hurricane. The NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast indicates widespread 10-30-inch amounts with high spots near 40 inches causing widespread flash flooding and numerous mudslides in parts of Hispaniola, all of Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba.