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Climate Impact Company Daily Feature
Issued: Thursday, October 16, 2025
Highlight: NOAA/CPC winter outlook is edging colder/snowier.
Fig. 1: The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid to January 2026.
Discussion: The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook expands drought across the Southern U.S. while maintaining drought across the Southwest U.S. and much of the East (Fig. 1). Typical of a La Nina winter climate, above normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Ohio Valley to ease drought in that region. Additionally, the (wet) La Nina climate bias also erodes drought in the Northwest U.S. Of note, Climate Impact Company expects the La Nina climate signal as weak during the next several months therefore the beneficial precipitation in the Northwest U.S. and Ohio Valley may be overstated.
The NOAA/CPC probabilistic climate forecast for November 2025 (Fig. 2-3) favors a wet climate across the Northwest and North-central U.S. with at least normal snowfall while a warmer than normal climate dominates the Southwest States, particularly Texas. Dryness is most favored in the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S.
The meteorological winter 2025-26 forecast (Fig. 4-5) is cold and snowy across the northern states from Washington to Michigan while the Ohio Valley turns stormy likely favoring snow. The southern tier of the U.S. is dry and warm.
Fig. 2-3: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation outlook for November 2025.
Fig. 4-5: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation outlook for DEC/JAN/FEB 2025-26.