10/23/2025, 8:20 am EDT
NOAA/CPC projects risk of significant storms in the Northeast and Northwest U.S. valid in the late October/early November timeframe. Heavy precipitation and high wind risk are featured.
News
10/21/2025, 4:38 pm EDT
Upper shear is inhibiting development. However, once an organized inner core has formed, given the 86F/30C SST which is 1-2C warmer than normal and 3rd warmest upper ocean heat on record for the Caribbean Sea, there is potential for rapid intensification (RI) as early as Thursday (HWRF) or later this week (HMON) to a strong category-2 hurricane or category-3 major hurricane.
10/21/2025, 5:30 am EDT
One cold front has plowed into Northeast Brazil this week and another stronger front shifts across Argentina late week/early weekend. The second front delivers a widespread cool air mass for next week across Argentina. The supporting upper trough cuts off over central South America in early November to deliver wet weather to the Brazil drought zone.
10/20/2025, 7:30 pm EDT
The upper air forecast for week-4 is highly variable ranging from an amplified (warm) Central U.S. high pressure ridge according to CFS V2 to a deep cool upper trough centered on New York based on the 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS, or somewhat of a compromise by ECMWF. MJO projections for mid-November are in phase_6 (near the Dateline) which favors a warm solution for the U.S. ECM is the chosen model with CFS V2 the caveat forecast while leaning away from the cooler East AI scenarios.