
Catastrophic Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa Ahead for Jamaica
10/26/2025, 1:24 pm EDT
Madden Julian Oscillation Update: Influence on La Nina and Potential SSW Events
10/29/2025, 1:00 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Monitor
Issued: Tuesday October 28, 2025, 8:20AM EST
Highlight: Melissa at 901 MB (175 mph wind), could lower to 890 MB (190 mph wind) today striking Jamaica.


Fig. 1-2: Morning weather satellite view of Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa and the NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track.
Discussion: At 8AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa was located about 55 miles south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica with central pressure 901 MB and top wind 175 mph while moving north-northeast at 7 mph. HWRF/HMON hurricane forecast models lower surface pressure to around 890 MB today forcing maximum wind to around 190 mph. The eye is 10 miles wide and will move across the west-central portion of Jamaica later today. All of Jamaica is exposed to catastrophic category-5 major hurricane damage with the passage of this storm. Melissa weakens steadily with interaction of high terrain of Eastern Cuba tomorrow and should lose major hurricane status once north of Cuba. A Hurricane Warning extends eastward to the U.S. Naval Base in Guantanamo Bay. Melissa reaches Bermuda as a hurricane Thursday night.

Fig. 3: Rainfall forecast from NOAA/NHC for the Caribbean Region due to Melissa.

