Black Sea Region Was Wet in October Reverses Dry in November

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Thursday October 30, 2025

Highlight: Black Sea region was wet in October reverses dry in November. Brazil forecast not quite as wet. Australia heavy rain areas as searing heat fades.

Discussion: As November approaches, Europe/Western Russia soil moisture conditions are driest in Western Europe with patchy dryness characterizing the Black Sea to Western Russia regions (Fig. 1). The 30-day precipitation pattern identifies drought-defeating rains in the Black Sea region while dryness was strongest across Western Europe (Fig. 2). Snow cover is minimal and well behind schedule across Northwest/North Eurasia helping to bias the 15-day temperature outlook mild (Fig. 3). The 15-day precipitation outlook in the Black Sea region indicates little or no rainfall (Fig. 4).

In Brazil, the 15-day outlook remains quite wet (Fig. 5) although not as wet as yesterday (Fig. 6). Forecast models continue to indicate cooling across Argentina during the next 2 weeks.

In Australia, after a searing hot and (mostly) dry October, the November pattern looks considerably wetter. The ECM ENS indicates heavy rain on the North and East/Southeast Coast in the latest 15-day forecast (Fig. 7). ECM has an unseasonably cool air mass spreading across the continent in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 8).

Charts of the Day

Fig. 1-4: The daily soil moisture anomalies analysis across Europe and Western Russia plus the 30-day percent of normal precipitation observations and AI Graph Cast 15-day temperature anomaly/15-day percent of normal precipitation outlook.

Fig. 5-6: The ECM 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Brazil into Argentina and the 24-hour change.

Fig. 7-8: The 15-day ECM ENS rainfall amount forecast across Australia plus the ECM 11-15-day temperature anomaly outlook.