Highlight: Watching precipitation patterns very closely heading into summer. Central/East-central severe storms/flooding rains continue.
Fig. 1-2: U.S. 15-day and week 3-4 (model) precipitation anomalies. The 15-day wet bias is across the East-central U.S. to eastern Oklahoma. Most of the Great Plains is missing the rainfall. The week 3-4 wet bias is in the western Corn Belt and Upper Midwest. Dryness is strong Mid-south.
Fig. 3-4: A Tornado Watch is in effect for north-central Texas to northeast Oklahoma now. More severe storms including a tornado risk regenerates across central/east-central Texas today. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across western Pennsylvania. On Thursday NOAA/SPC projects “strong” thunderstorms from eastern Texas to the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic States.
Fig. 5-7: More excessive rainfall is likely today across eastern Oklahoma stretching to the southern Ohio Valley and also into central Texas. Right now, a flash flooding is occurring on the central TX/OK border! The excessive rainfall risk continues tomorrow shifting slightly eastward to Arkansas. Excessive rainfall/flash flood risk shifts to eastern Texas Friday and into the weekend.
Fig. 8: There are hot spots in the 10-day forecast, most of them in Texas. The Desert Southwest into southern California is also hot at times. A heat spike is projected for the Mid-Atlantic States May 4th when temperatures surge into the 90’s!