Just-ended U.S. Cool Season Gas Population Weight HDD Anomalies

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The 2020-21 cool season valid October 202o to April 2021 produced a warmer-than-normal climate and below normal heating demand for the U.S. The two exceptions are the month of February which included the arctic outbreak into the Central U.S. with greatest impact on Texas and also April which was slightly cooler than normal.

Highlight: Verified U.S. HDD Anomalies for 2020-21 and Forecast CDD Anomalies for 2021

Fig. 1: U.S. gas population weight HDD anomaly for each month of the just-finished cool season for the U.S.

Discussion: The 2020-21 cool season valid October 202o to April 2021 produced a warmer-than-normal climate and below normal heating demand for the U.S. (Fig. 1). The two exceptions are the month of February which included the arctic outbreak into the Central U.S. with greatest impact on Texas and also April which was slightly cooler than normal. NOV/DEC/JAN 2020-21 were each much warmer than normal. Compared to the last 3 years most notable is the warm December 2020 and the cold in February 2021.

Fig. 2: U.S. population weight CDD anomaly forecast for each month of the just-started warm season for the U.S.

Discussion: The warm season 2021 CDD anomaly forecast for the U.S. indicates exceptionally warm-to-hot anomalies for June and August and especially July (Fig. 2). The forecast is similar to the tendency for hot summer months of the past two years. The season starts cool with suppressed heat risk for April and May and also finishes cooler than the past 3 years.