Slow-moving Severe Weather/Excessive Rainfall Event into the East

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An intense upper trough over the Tennessee Valley shifts east slowly causing more severe storms in the Southeast and excessive rainfall Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States. Flood watch areas are posted for the entire Mid-Atlantic region.

Fig. 1-2: Current NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning and advisory areas. Today’s NOAA/SPC severe weather outlook.

Severe weather/heavy rain discussion: NOAA/NWS has issued a flood watch for most of the Mid-Atlantic region for a heavy rain event tomorrow (Fig. 1). Meanwhile the first excessive heat episode of the season continues in the Southwest States. Yesterday, severe weather produced 349 damage reports in the Mid-South U.S. most caused by straight-line wind gusts although a lot of hail damage was reported in Oklahoma. Today’s severe weather outlook indicates a widening risk area centered on New Orleans to Atlanta (Fig. 2). The core of the highest flash flood risk today is across the southern Appalachians where near 2 in. of rain is expected (Fig. 3-4). Flooding in the Chicago area is also likely today. On Thursday the flood risk shifts to the northern Mid-Atlantic States (Fig. 5) where near 2 in. of rain is also expected (Fig. 6).

Fig. 3-4: NOAA/WPC excessive rainfall/flash flood risk and rainfall mount forecast for today/tonight.

Fig. 5-6: NOAA/WPC excessive rainfall/flash flood risk and rainfall mount forecast for tomorrow/tomorrow tonight.