Heatwave Suppressed Next Week, Redevelops/Expands Middle Third of June

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

Europe/Western Russia

Issued: Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Highlight: Heatwave suppressed next week, redevelops/expands middle third of June.

Charts of the day: NAWH trough induces amplified Southwest Europe ridge (and suddenly emerging Mediterranean Sea heatwave).

*New Europe month 1-5 forecast/CDD update out by tomorrow.

Discussion: The rapidly emerging Mediterranean Sea marine heatwave (MHW) is well-correlated to the Southwest Europe heatwave likely to linger this week. However, the catalyst to the amplified upper ridge, an equally impressive upstream trough located across the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH), broadens in the 8-14-day period causing the upper ridge to de-amplify and shift southward.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 31-June 7, 2026: Storm track returns to Northern Europe; Heat core in Southwest Europe shifts southward.

Discussion: AIFS ENS steadily maintains top skill scores in the 8-14-day period for Europe 500 MB anomaly forecasts. The AIFS ENS reveals that next week the Southwest Europe heat core shifts southward while Northwest Eurasia warms. The NAWH low pressure area causes a storm track to emerge over Northern Europe while Southwest Europe stays dry.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 7-14, 2026: Redeveloping extreme heat.

Discussion: Expect the upper ridge to re-intensify across Southern Europe as hot weather intensifies from Spain to Italy accompanied by dry weather.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 14-21, 2026: Heatwave expands.

Discussion: ECM projects the upper ridge to anchor on Germany as heatwave conditions shift northward.