Latest 15-Day and 16-30-Day U.S. Precipitation Forecasts Indicate Rapidly Drying Soils North-central U.S. (and Vicinity)

Climate Impact Company Memorial Day Global Weather/Climate Report

Issued: Monday May 25, 2026

Highlight:  Latest 15-day and 16-30-day U.S. precipitation forecasts indicate rapidly drying soils North-central U.S. (and vicinity).

Discussion: Most of springtime, possibly related to long-term climate, GFS and ECM have been too wet with U.S. rainfall forecasts east of the Continental Divide although too dry in the Missouri Valley during the past 7 days. AI Graph Cast ECM ENS has shown the least precipitation bias during the past 30 days.

The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS 15-day rainfall forecast is SCARY. The model locks extreme rain in the Gulf States and keeps the Midwest U.S. arid (Fig. 1). Implied is an acceleration of the May drier North/wetter South pattern. Very warm to hot weather affecting much of the dry zone over the next 15 days (Fig. 2) helps to accelerate drying of soils.

In the 16-30-day period, the dry and warm-to-hot pattern locks on the West and North-central U.S. while the wet pattern in the Gulf States expands into the East (Fig. 3-4).

Fig. 1-2: AI Graph Cast ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall and temperature anomaly forecast across the U.S.

Fig. 3-4: ECM days 16-30 precipitation and temperature anomalies outlook for the U.S.