NCEP CFS V2 Model Delays La Nina Dissipation Until JUN/JUL 2022

Warm Winter 2021-22 U.S. HDD Forecast
12/22/2021, 8:36 am EST
ECMWF Snowfall Forecasts in the East Through 10 Days
12/30/2021, 3:58 pm EST
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Highlight: Steady moderate-strength La Nina.

Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino region SSTA observations.

Discussion: The Nino34 SSTA region is steadily in moderate-strength La Nina (Fig. 1). Similarly, all other Nino SSTA regions are steadily in moderate-intensity La Nina character. In a change, the NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast indicates La Nina 2021-22 will last to JUN/JUL 2022 before dissipation (Fig. 2). Previously, La Nina was forecast to fade by late Q1/2022.

Fig. 2: The Nino34 SSTA forecast by NCEP CFS V2 indicates La Nina dissipation is delayed until JUN/JUL 2022.