NCEP CFS V2 Model Delays La Nina Dissipation Until JUN/JUL 2022

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The NCEP CFS V2 forecast model delays La Nina dissipation until early summer 2021 (in the northern hemisphere). Previously, La Nina was forecast to dissipate by MAR/APR 2022.

Highlight: Steady moderate-strength La Nina.

Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino region SSTA observations.

Discussion: The Nino34 SSTA region is steadily in moderate-strength La Nina (Fig. 1). Similarly, all other Nino SSTA regions are steadily in moderate-intensity La Nina character. In a change, the NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast indicates La Nina 2021-22 will last to JUN/JUL 2022 before dissipation (Fig. 2). Previously, La Nina was forecast to fade by late Q1/2022.

Fig. 2: The Nino34 SSTA forecast by NCEP CFS V2 indicates La Nina dissipation is delayed until JUN/JUL 2022.