June 2021 - Page 2 of 2 - Climate Impact Company

06/13/2021, 8:01 am EDT

California/Southwest U.S. & Great Plains Super Heat Event This Week

A high-pressure cell over the Southwest U.S. this week strengthens to rare 6000 DM at 500 MB propelling widespread historic heat across the Southwest U.S., California and pulsing into the Great Plains and reaching western Texas by next weekend. Searing and extremely dangerous heat is caused by this super high-pressure cell.

06/10/2021, 1:31 pm EDT

Main Development Region for North Atlantic hurricanes cools at rapid pace in May!

Between the eastern entrance to the Caribbean Sea and off the northwest coast of Africa between 5N and 23N is where the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index is calculated. The TNA is a simple SSTA value for this region which is also known as the main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes. In May, the TNA index declined -0.50 to -0.18, the strongest negative monthly drop in the 1950-2021 climatology.

06/10/2021, 4:45 am EDT

A Look At Global Soil Moisture And Trend

Assumed is that U.S. drought risk is the only significant dry regime influence on northern hemisphere crops for the summer 2021 season. Is that notion true? The second-most watched area is the Black Sea region. Late spring rains have doused marginal dry soils in Ukraine, Southwest Russia and Russia’s Southern District. Not far away an intense drought is occurring across Turkey. The eastern spring wheat region in Russia has shifted into drought.

06/09/2021, 10:58 am EDT

Daily Feature: May 2021 U.S. Climate Rankings

U.S. rankings for temperature and precipitation were almost exactly in the middle of the 127-year climatology. However, as is often the case, normal (nationally) can be the average of extremes.

06/08/2021, 9:32 am EDT

North Atlantic Tropics/Subtropics SSTA Trending Cooler

The North Atlantic SSTA analysis reveals why the seasonal CIC tropical cyclone forecast is slightly lower than other forecasters. The tropics and subtropics have cooled to near or below normal during late spring and continue to cooldown. A cooler regime in the deep tropics would lower hurricane/ACE index values.

06/08/2021, 9:04 am EDT

Early June U.S. Rainfall Deficits Increasing Rapidly!

Rainfall required to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has increased dramatically during early June in the East U.S. Already steep departures across the West U.S. have also worsened. The California and Washington/Oregon (along the Cascades) rainfall deficits are off-the-chart >15 in.

06/06/2021, 9:20 am EDT

Evaporative Drought Demand Index Implicates Northeast Quadrant of U.S. for Possible Drought

Due to implications of potential flash drought in the Great Lakes/eastern Ohio Valley to Northeast U.S. by the Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) Climate Impact Company is issuing a drought watch for the northeast quadrant of the U.S.

06/04/2021, 5:13 am EDT

Harsh North Dakota Drought To Last

D3/D4 drought is present across North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and into southern Canada (Fig. 1). D3/D4 drought conditions during summertime do not erode unless an interaction between the prevailing storm track and tropical moisture (or direct impact from a tropical cyclone) occurs. Interaction with tropical moisture for storms passing the northern Great Plains will have to wait until late summer. As a result, harsh drought continues in this region for the next 8-10 weeks (at least).

06/02/2021, 8:09 pm EDT

FINAL 2021 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Forecast

The Climate Impact Company North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast of seasonal activity for 2021 is updated. The seasonal forecast activity is lowered slightly although the number of intense hurricanes increases from 2 to 3. The ACE index lowers sharply to 106 (from 127).

06/02/2021, 10:47 am EDT

MJO shifts to the tropical North Atlantic next week. Supports tropical cyclone development.

During neutral ENSO, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is normally active. During northern hemisphere summer, influence of the convection phase of the MJO causes an increase in wet monsoon moisture and tropical cyclone risk in neighboring longitudes. The ECMWF 14-day MJO forecast indicates anomalous convection in the tropical West Pacific (now) shifts eastward and across the tropical North Atlantic in 8-14 days.