05/23/2018, 2:45 pm EDT

Southeast Drought Ends Along With Hot Bias for Summer Ahead

Frequent very hot days caused in-part due to drought in the Southeast through the middle third of May is about to end as wet weather suppresses anomalous heat risk ahead.
05/18/2018, 11:35 am EDT

Wettest Eastern U.S. Summer Outlook Issued by NOAA/CPC Long-lead Style

The JUN/JUL/AUG 2018 probabilistic rainfall forecast issued by NOAA/CPC may be the wettest summer outlook issued in the 23-year history of the (NOAA) long-lead forecast product.
05/16/2018, 10:49 am EDT

Current U.S. Soil Moisture Observations (and Trend) Foreshadow Summer Heat Risk in U.S.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week New Orleans set daily records of 96 and 97. The onset of extreme heat is related to the rapid transition of drier soil moisture in the Mid-South U.S. during the month of May. Well known is the relationship between large areas of soil moisture deficit to increase anomalous heat risk during the summer season. Not as well-known is the ability for the same hot weather enhancement by a rapid drier soil moisture change.
05/09/2018, 5:11 am EDT

North Atlantic Tropics Cool Ahead of Tropical Cyclone Season

The onset of tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin is a few weeks away. Interestingly, the North Atlantic tropics have cooled to below normal the last several months. Recovery can certainly occur however leading forecast models maintain this cool signature into the core of tropical cyclone season and also indicate signs of a potential El Nino. If an El Nino were to form and the North Atlantic tropical waters were near or cooler than normal, the 2018 tropical cyclone season would observe diminished activity.