ECM “weeklies” indicate development of a stormy and cold upper trough in the Central/East U.S. as the middle third of January arrives. Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecasts support this projection. Recent positive phase reflection index also supports this potential pattern change.

November 2023 ranked 19th warmest on record given the 129-year climatology. New Mexico and Nebraska ranked MUCH ABOVE normal temperature while the remainder of the West and Central States were warmer than normal. The South and East U.S. were close to normal.

Reginal wetter changes (10) outnumbered the drier changes (7) during SEP/OCT/NOV 2023. Drought worsened in Brazil and Western Australia to Western Indonesia while dry zones steadily emerged over the East-central U.S. and Interior South Africa. Wetter zones were most profound in Northeast Africa to Saudi Arabia in response to the positive phase Indian ocean dipole (+IOD).

The northern hemisphere snow cover during November 2023 was above normal which is consistent with each year since 2009. Climate Impact Company theorizes the reason for the consistent above normal snow cover just prior to the start of meteorological winter is due to cold advections snows across wide open water north of each continent and south of a constricting polar ice cap.