The monthly wind speed and wind speed anomaly analysis for each month of the U.S. 2017-18 cold season reveals varying regimes on a month-to-month basis embedded in a La Nina climate. La Nina was weak opening the door for other climate factors including high wind in the East driven by January arctic outbreaks.

Early assessment of the 2018 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season are generally close to normal and less active than last year. The range in possibilities is well defined by the Colorado State University Tropical Prediction Project on the high end and Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. on the low end. The Climate Impact Co. analog forecast is in-the-middle. The less active than 2017 forecast is based mostly on the cooler North Atlantic tropics.

The 2018 Climate Impact Company North Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone outlook is issued. The next update will be available around June 1. The outlook projects 12 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes in 2018. The accumulated cyclone energy index forecast is 93. The outlook is slightly less active than the 30-year climatology and very similar to neutral ENSO climatology forecast for this season. The activity is considerably lower than last year. A transition from weak La Nina toward weak El Nino coupled with only near normal warmth of the ocean surface in the deep North Atlantic tropics are lead contributors to the forecast.