Cooler Pattern Western Russia (After Record Warm April)

Charts of the day: Day 16-30 temperature forecast verification.

Discussion: Both the ECM and CFS V2 (models) have averaged much too warm during the past 14 days with 16-30-day forecasts for Europe and much too cool in the Black Sea/Southwest Russia region.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 12-18, 2024: Western Russia chill with showers continues.

Discussion: Negative Scandinavia index which represents a sharp trough over Northwest Eurasia dominates the first half of May pattern. The trough lingers into mid-May according to ECM sustaining cool weather across Western Russia and a wet scenario across Southwest Russia and eastward.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid May 19-25, 2024: Warmer/drier Southern Europe.

Discussion: Weakening of the -SCAND pattern is likely for after mid-May. North Africa heat spreads northward to Southern Europe with attendant dryness into Central Europe. A showery regime remains, mostly east of the Black Sea region.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid May 26-June 1, 2024: Warmer risk is Europe, not Russia.

Discussion: The concern is North Africa heat may cause an upper ridge to amplify over Europe causing a warmer forecast while a compensating trough keeps Kazakhstan and vicinity showery.