NOAA Fire Risk Outlook May to August 2024: Concern Areas are New Mexico, Great Basin, Washington, and Hawaii

Highlight: NOAA Fire Risk Outlook for MAY-AUG 2024. Greatest concern in New Mexico, the northern Great Basin, and Washington.

Fig. 1: The NOAA fire risk outlook for May to August 2024.

Discussion: NOAA issued their fire risk outlook last week (Fig. 1). In review, the May 2024 risk highlights Southeast Arizona, parts of eastern New Mexico, and north-central Florida as susceptible to fire development and expansion due to dry soils. Note that all the Hawaiian Islands are in a similar risk throughout the next 4 months. Also note the lack of fire risk in California into mid-summer due to plentiful soil moisture largely created by runoff from snowmelt. In June 2024, the Arizona/New Mexico and Florida fire risk areas expand. Added in June is the Upper Midwest States including the northwest Great Lakes region. July 2024 thunderstorm activity erases the Upper Midwest fire risk while tropical risks wipe-out the Florida drought. Drought expansion leading to increased fire risk is evident across the Interior West to Northwest U.S. during mid-summer. In August, NOAA projects fire risk to continue to expand across the Interior West and Northwest States.