Neutral ENSO remains and the recent cooling trend toward La Nina temporarily slows. Once into the second half of August, +SOI is likely to return. A trend toward La Nina is indicated for Q4/2025. Whether the Nino34 SSTA can shift sufficiently cool and stay consistent to initiate La Nina is in question.

Hot weather emerges in Western Europe during early August beneath an amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge also causing widespread dryness across Europe to the Black Sea region which will worsen drought conditions.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, a Flood Watch is issued for excessive rainfall and severe storm threat for today. In high population centers of Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia dangerous flash flooding is possible late today/tonight!

Sneaky chilly weather into Southern Brazil this morning and Wednesday morning with moderation to follow later this week. Next week, ECM projects a warmer regime across Argentina and Brazil. However, AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS regenerates chilly weather. An important ECM Vs. AI test case for Brazil next week!