Climate diagnostics continue to indicate lack of a push toward La Nina. In July, the southern oscillation index was in a weak El Nino phase for the second consecutive month while subsurface upper ocean heat is only marginally cool. Using analogs, the ENSO forecast for the remainder of 2024 and possibly 2025 is neutral phase.

The most destructive and life-threatening aspect of a tropical cyclone is flooding. Debby brings a gigantic area of excessive rainfall and attendant flash flood risk to the Southeast and East U.S. this week. 2-3 feet of rain is possible in parts of the Southeast U.S. as Debby stalls after moving inland.

Preliminary forecast tracks for Tropical Disturbance 97L currently located over Hispaniola are into the northeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week where water temperatures reach 87F/31C. The HWRF forecast model recognizes the warm water and takes "Debby" into the eastern Florida Panhandle Monday morning as a category 2 hurricane.

Extreme heat and, according to GFS, up to 240 hours with no rain in Arkansas (and vicinity) expect flash drought to develop in the Mid-South U.S. during early August. Some much-needed wet weather may generate in the 11-15-day period to bring slight relief.