As mid-spring passes, drought potential for late spring and summer 2023 in the northern hemisphere becomes more in focus.

The intense drought spread across the central and southwest Great Plains and into Texas worsened last week. The worsening condition in this region was observed in each climate division within the affected area except much of Kansas where intense drought remained steady, southeast Colorado, and the upper coast of Texas.

The Climate Impact Company ENSO forecast indicates a weak El Nino ahead for meteorological summer 2023. However, the subsurface equatorial Pacific is warming rapidly and the aggressive El Nino forecasts by dynamic models are slowly gaining credibility.