10/13/2022, 11:24 am EDT

The Difference Between CFS V2 and CIC-CA Upper Air Forecast for Winter 2022-23

The prevailing view of most winter 2022-23 forecasts for the U.S. is a very La Nina-like South/East U.S. warmer-than-normal regime associated with dryness. A wet risk is enhanced in the Midwest States and possibly the Northwest U.S. In Europe, a milder-than-normal winter climate is indicated. Climate Impact Company disagrees. The CIC-CA forecast indicates a pattern much more conducive of cold weather risk.
10/12/2022, 2:12 pm EDT

U.S. SEP-22 and JUL/AUG/SEP-22 Temperature and Precipitation Report

The hottest JUL/AUG/SEP on record (128 years) was observed this year. The excessive hot pattern was inspired by all-time-record heat across the entire West U.S. to the Continental Divide (except Arizona and New Mexico). Certainly, a major contribution to the extreme heat was both the shallow and deep layer long-term soil moisture deficits (drought).
10/11/2022, 1:01 pm EDT

October Wind and Solar Outlook for October 2022

Wind Outlook Discussion: In this report, our concern is with California and Texas. All models are considered to help identify any peak wind generation events and their catalyst. Beginning with Northern California (Fig. 1), unusual high wind events in the 15-day forecast are not expected. However, several periods of moderate wind are indicated. Today through Thursday offers a light to sometimes moderate northeast to southeast wind. A similar weather wet-up brings a stronger easterly wind on Saturday into Sunday. ECMWF is strongest with this event. On October 23-24, moderate to strong northwest wind trailing a Pacific cold front is expected. In Southern California (Fig. 2), several events are indicated featuring moderate wind power generation potential. However, each may be over-forecast given questionable synoptic dynamics. Each event indicated are east-southeasterlies driven by low-pressure near the southern California Coast. In Texas (Fig. 3), the events identified are supported by synoptic events. Briefly windy trailing a passing cold front tonight/tomorrow followed by more favorable wind generation episodes this weekend and early next week. Southwesterlies are moderate this weekend ahead of a cold front. Easterlies trailing that cold front are more impressive early next week. Each event can last 2 days. A period of moderate southwesterlies is indicated for 2 to 3 days centered on October 21-23. Fig. 1: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Northern California. Fig. 2: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Southern California. Fig. 3: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Texas. Solar Outlook Discussion: The 15-day outlook indicates a peak event (which is about 85% of the absolute peak this time of year) across CAISO is present late this week and through the weekend as clouds in Southern California break (Fig. 4). GFS returns cloudiness on the weekend and consequently this forecast is made with below average confidence. Another peak event occurs October 19-20. Across ERCOT (Fig. 5), separate peak events are more clearly defined. Peak solar generation potential (for October) is indicated on Oct. 13 followed by a 2-day event on Oct. 19-20 and a 3rd episode Oct. 26-27. Sunny and dry weather across Texas is about to give way to periodic rain and clouds. Fig. 4: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for CAISO. Fig. 5: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for ERCOT.
10/11/2022, 8:20 am EDT

Global Soil Moisture Anomalies and 3-Month Trend

During JUL/AUG/SEP 2022 large regions of wet soil moisture change outnumbered large areas of dry soil moisture change 12-8. The large region wet soil moisture changes from the past 3 months were most dramatic in India, interior northeastern Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of North-central and east tropical Africa.