09/22/2022, 8:31 am EDT

The Tropical Disturbance 98L Report

A review of Tropical Disturbance 98L and expectations that this system will intensify and drift into the Gulf of Mexico next week while possibly reaching major hurricane intensity.
09/20/2022, 8:52 am EDT

Trouble Brewing in the Gulf of Mexico Next Week?

GFS and ECM are becoming consistent projecting a significant tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The latest GFS forecast indicates a major hurricane into the Florida Peninsula in 9-10 days and then roaring northward bringing wind and rain to the entire East Coast. Obviously, a long-range forecast but persistence of models and tendency for extreme weather events requires identifying the risk NOW. This system is in its infancy in the central North Atlantic tropics now.
09/15/2022, 12:32 pm EDT

Comparing NOAA and CIC Q4/2022 Climate Forecasts

In the Q4/2022 outlook, NOAA and CIC are agreeable on the temperature outlook which is broadly warmer than normal across most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is agreeable on dryness across the South U.S. However, CIC is drier on each coast and wetter in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.