An intensifying Kona Storm has emerged west of Hawaii and will cause widespread flash flooding especially Kauai and Oahu today.

At risk of several to 10+ in. of rain is anywhere from northeast Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) based on a consensus of the 15-day rainfall forecast by GFS, ECM and CMC. The severe weather threat zone will be Texas and the Missouri Valley.

The most remarkable soil moisture regimes are the persistent and historic wet soil moisture regimes across eastern tropical Africa and India. The wet soils in this area are the result of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole which peaked in intensity last October. Warm SSTA across the tropical Indian Ocean may try to sustain this wet pattern despite the collapse of the +IOD.