Agriculture markets in South America have blamed EL Nino for heavy rains in northeast Argentina and crop-impending drought across Brazil. However, the feedback to the atmosphere by excessive dry and wet soil regimes is enhancing already semi-permanent upper air features maintaining the summertime climate and likely to continue through February. It's not El Nino.

Last week searing heat affected Australia and more is expected this week. Argentina rains/dry southwest Brazil climate returned. In Europe to Western Russia a mild climate was observed last week which is about to reverse much colder.

Helping to spark a colder and snowier regime across eastern North America to close January is a spiking positive phase of the atmospheric angular momentum.

Within the energy and agriculture markets there is great interest in the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). Why? The MJO is an intra-seasonal mode of climate variability enhancing tropical cyclone risk and modifying monsoon regimes in the tropics and when strong enough affects the mid-latitude storm track increasing the risk of weather extremes.