Remarkably, despite a harsh arctic outbreak in December, the U.S. temperature averaged almost exactly normal and ranked 64 (of 128 years) which is right in the middle. The cold region was the Great Plains, Montana and Washington although not particularly impressive. Sixteen states were warmer than normal including MUCH ABOVE normal in Maine.

Large regional soil moisture changes during Q4/2022 favored wetter (12) vs. drier (8) trends. The most prominent wetter change is across the Western U.S. and that wetter transition has accelerated in January. The most dramatic dry trend is across Argentina where drought intensified.

During the past 10 years, a semi-permanent upper trough has set-up near or southeast of Greenland frequently compensated for by a downstream upper ridge over Europe. When that Europe ridge is present, the record warm Mediterranean Sea is helping to intensify the upper ridge pattern helping to explain the recent unusual early January warmth.