Subsurface warmth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is impressive and foreshadows El Nino ahead. Some of the subsurface warming is emerging near the Dateline and East-central equatorial Pacific implying approaching El Nino. However, the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is staying cool. Diagnostics and forecast (models) support this set of circumstances continuing. Emerging is an El Nino ahead biased toward the Dateline rather than the northwest coast of South America. Risk of El Nino Modoki is emerging and if so alerting traditional El Nino climate currently expected for later this year.

Pictured is the 30-day rainfall amount across Virginia indicating a range of 10-25 in. (and high spots near 30 in.). The great rainfall event of late calendar spring 2018 from the Midwest U.S. to Virginia was caused in a large part by a vast cooler than normal ocean surface regime south of Greenland.

The equatorial subsurface Pacific Ocean is plenty warm and warming and foreshadows El Nino ahead once trade winds cease on a consistent basis. Cross-equatorial flow powered by the positive phase of the Pacific meridional mode has prevented surface warming into late calendar northern hemisphere spring.

After a hot and mostly dry period through mid-June Central U.S. agriculture areas are struck by 3-6 in. of gully-washer rains this week.