The May 2026 CDD at Heathrow and Paris were prohibitively warm! A whopping 61 CDD was observed in Paris due to a record (May) heat spike compared to 12 and 15 30-year/10-year climatology. The June 2026 CDD forecast for both Heathrow and Paris remain hot with strong increases in CDD count from the previous (May) forecast. Note that May, June, and July (Paris) are hotter (CDD) forecasts than last year’s totals.

An immense heatwave south and west of Europe is intensifying, typical of the past 10 years during June in this region. The MHW is well-correlated to a summertime 500 MB hot/dry ridge across Europe forecast by ECM "weeklies" in the week 3-4 outlook. Meanwhile, an intense Madden Julian oscillation has caused southern oscillation index into an extreme negative phase signaling the onset of an El Nino climate. Forecast models indicte risk of important cold into Brazil in the 11-15-day period.

The mega-cluster ensemble combining ECM, CFS, and CMC output indicates risk of significant cold not far from Brazil coffee-growing areas on June 15-16.

The updated Climate Impact Company 2026 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season activity forecast lowers amount previously indicated in early April from 13 to 11 tropical storms while maintaining 5 hurricanes and lowering from 3 to 2 the amounts of intense hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy forecast lowers sharply from 98 to 73. However, the projected hurricane tracks indicate two potential land-falling systems in the Gulf of Mexico and another into the North Carolina Coast. The seasonal activity lowers but the danger to the U.S. Coast increases.