Last week searing heat affected Australia and more is expected this week. Argentina rains/dry southwest Brazil climate returned. In Europe to Western Russia a mild climate was observed last week which is about to reverse much colder.

Helping to spark a colder and snowier regime across eastern North America to close January is a spiking positive phase of the atmospheric angular momentum.

Within the energy and agriculture markets there is great interest in the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). Why? The MJO is an intra-seasonal mode of climate variability enhancing tropical cyclone risk and modifying monsoon regimes in the tropics and when strong enough affects the mid-latitude storm track increasing the risk of weather extremes.

The Nino SSTA regions are cooling. Upper ocean heat remains robust but is subsiding. NCEP ENSO forecast models indicate very weak El Nino ahead and neutral phase by summer. The popular NCEP CFS V2 model is too warm.