On May 11th, NOAA/NHC determined an intense storm off the Northeast U.S. Coast gained subtropical characteristics and is considered the first event of the 2023 season. The next storm will be identified as AL02 although given the name Arlene if intensification occurs.

Beginning with the 2013-14 Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (MHW) known at the time as the “warm blob” regional very warm (and cool) ocean surface zones have accelerated and are affecting our climate. The most recent analysis identifying where MHW’s are currently located indicates 5 major events that are ongoing. Learn more from Climate Impact Company at GRAINCOM 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland May 15-17, 2023!

Evolution of a major tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal later this week will bring a large area of excessive rain to the Southeast Asia drought area during the middle third of May. Meanwhile, India will turn very dry and hot after a recent period a thundershower weather pattern.

The 10-day rainfall forecasts feature buoyant amounts across Texas where ECM ENS forecasts extreme rainfall. The Texas drought is easing. To the north of this wet zone easing Texas drought, forecasts are uncertain how much heavy rain can infiltrate northern latitudes and if any of that rain can strike the core of the current drought in Kansas.