The incidence of drought/flash drought and flash flooding events has increased. To monitor where these episodes are most likely to occur knowledge of longer-term precipitation patterns is helpful. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society has identified regional dry and wet zones based on a ranking of monthly precipitation over the past 3 months.

The NMME, CFS V2 and GFDL global SSTA forecast models each develop La Nina by summertime. Coupled with much warmer-than-normal middle latitude SSTA in the North Pacific and North Atlantic forecasts there is potential for widespread anomalous heat and dryness this summer season in the U.S. coupled with a dangerous North Atlantic tropical cyclone season.

The intense positive phase of the Indian ocean Dipole brought heavy rains to South Asia while drying Australia. The pattern is now fading.

Many implications beyond the U.S. warm-up are indicated. Most important is the increase in tropical convection north of Australia leading to heavy rains in Indonesia and increased risk of tropical cyclone activity. The wet weather frequently shifts south to affect Australia where rainfall is desperately needed.