Coupling between the warming eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere to produce an El Nino climate is not occurring. For this reason other regional climate generators gain influence. One recent example is emergence of a very un-El Nino-like wet regime evolving in northeast Brazil.

A major U.S. storm is ahead featuring a Nebraska blizzard, Mid-South U.S. tornado outbreak and 10 in. of rain across northern Florida is ahead inspired by interaction of mid-latitude storms entraining deep subtropical moisture provided by the tropical East Pacific Madden Julian oscillation. The event is a possible sign of El Nino climate onset. El Nino will be with us well into 2019.

An unusually large portion of the U.S. have excessive wet soil moisture. Projections are much of the U.S. east of the Continental Divide enter the 2019 warm season with wet soils.

The operational European model indicates a stratospheric warming event across central and northeast Asia mid-next week. The stratospheric warming event causes arctic air to rapidly generate in Central Russia late next week and just as quickly surge westward into Europe late month.