02/10/2021, 2:47 pm EST

Daily Feature: ECMWF (“European model”) and ERCOT pictures.

ECMWF indicates a large area of moderate to heavy snow arriving with an arctic air mass on Monday followed by historic chill for Tuesday morning.
02/10/2021, 11:43 am EST

Madden Julian Oscillation Impact On February North America Climate

A moderate-to-strong convection phase of the MJO near the Dateline is releasing latent heat poleward causing the northeastern Pacific Ocean subtropical ridge to amplify. Downstream from this amplified ridge a strong trough emerges over central North America entraining arctic air cross-polar from Russia to likely cause the coldest Great Plains pattern on record for mid-February.
02/05/2021, 8:17 am EST

January 2021 Global Soil Moisture Outlook

Only one significant change across North America…drier in the East-central U.S. In Central America a much wetter trend was observed and extended to the Caribbean Islands. In South America, the drought pattern eased in both northwestern and central South America.
02/05/2021, 7:56 am EST

Medium-range Forecast Verification of North America Temperature Forecasts Too Cold So Far in 2021

The colder overnight trend is reasonably confident but has potential for changes over-the-weekend. Why? Take a look at the average temperature error the past 30 days by the GFS for days 6-10 and days 11-15. The bias is clearly too cold in west/central portions of Canada.