Updated 30-year climatology reveal the tendency for long-term rainfall deficits in California which culminate in deep layer soil moisture shortages that can aggravate fire risk and act as an accelerant. California and much of the West is in danger of another extreme fire year.

ECMWF is forecasting SSTA south and southwest of the Southwest U.S. to turn warmer than normal during summertime. The far eastern equatorial Pacific is also forecast to warm. The warmer SSSTA favor a wetter than normal Southwest U.S. Monsoon Season.

The MJO forecast indicates an east-shift across the tropical West Pacific over the next 1-2 weeks. A streak of that energy reaches into the Southwest U.S. in the 6-10-day period to produce a low latitude upper trough which soaks the Mid-south U.S. with excessive rainfall, flash flooding and severe weather.

Today the Australia Bureau of Meteorology issued an updated Indian Ocean Index (IOD) forecast indicating emergence of a possible strong negative phase for the Australian winter. -IOD occurs when waters northwest of Australia and into the eastern tropical Indian Ocean shift warmer than normal while waters in the western Indian ocean tropics turn cooler.