The persistent +SOI, enhanced by MJO, is causing eastern equatorial Pacific trade winds to increase. Subsurface cool waters in the equatorial Pacific are beginning to up-well to the surface. The Nino34 SSTA is now -0.13C after dropping 0.27C during the past 7 days.

The SEP/OCT/NOV 2024 tropical cyclone activity forecast projects a still dangerous total of 12 storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 168. The activity forecast for the second half of the season is about 137% of the 30-year normal.

Dynamic models and to a degree AI outlooks have produced consistent too warm medium-range forecasts in the U.S. during summer 2024. The most likely issue with dynamic models is unexpected cooler SSTA either side of the U.S. causing mid-summer troughs suppressing heat risk.

The end of July 2024 global marine heatwave assessment from NOAA indicated that 35% of the oceans are in marine heat wave status. The monthly observation ranks 14th highest in the nearly 400 months of observations dating back to 1991. NOAA indicates MHW coverage of 35% now will decrease to about 30% by October 2024.