The tropics are likely to activate to finish September extending well into October. So far, 7 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes have generated, and seasonal outlooks projected a minimum of 13 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. Operational models project 3 events in the 15-day outlook.

Canadian Duram crop samples show damage by wet weather according to a Reuters report issued yesterday. The damage is likely related to a dry start to summer ending very wet in August. The JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 precipitation anomalies are misleading indicating widespread dryness while the southern prairies were soaking wet in August.

Since mid-August, an upper trough settled over the East U.S. propelling upper-level westerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico extending to Cuba. The shearing westerly flow aloft has helped to keep this zone dry in the middle troposphere and produced an environment hostile to tropical development. The ECM ENS 500 MB anomaly forecast maintains the shearing westerlies across the Gulf of Mexico.

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is exceptionally strong during summer 2025 well-correlated to a semi-permanent upper-level trough across the same area recently budging eastward toward Europe the first half of September. Proximity of the trough to Europe has spawned heavy rains for late calendar-summer. The ECM ENS 10-day rainfall forecast indicates the emphasis of the heavy rain consolidates over France and vicinity.