Large differences are regions of wet vs. dry soil across the Central and East U.S. are evident in the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis. The rainfall pattern is changeable and features significant events as organized drought risk heading toward meteorological summer is not weel-organized (except in the Southwest). The Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia drought receives relief from a showery pattern the next 2 weeks.

Subsidence on the back side of an East Coast trough causes the onset of an excessive hot weather pattern across Texas on Tuesday. The hottest day of an extended heatwave is Wednesday when southwest flow extending across Texas from the hot air source region across the Mexico drought area occurs. Widespread 100’s are likely on Wednesday. The hot southwest flow peaks Wednesday although likely remaining through the 10-day heat wave.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog ENSO phase forecast valid through May 2026 yields oceanic (Nino34 SSTA) El Nino potential for later this year while the atmospheric (multivariate ENSO index) ENSO phase is neutral. Dynamic models mostly agree with neutral phase.

During mid-February to mid-April, the Nino12 SSTA region warmed to an unexpected +1C to +2C. During the 2-month period, the warm waters in this region contributed to a wet climate bias favoring northwest South America and eastward into North-central Brazil. As the Nino12 region cooled recently, wet weather shifted across Brazil.