GFS and ECM are becoming consistent projecting a significant tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The latest GFS forecast indicates a major hurricane into the Florida Peninsula in 9-10 days and then roaring northward bringing wind and rain to the entire East Coast. Obviously, a long-range forecast but persistence of models and tendency for extreme weather events requires identifying the risk NOW. This system is in its infancy in the central North Atlantic tropics now.

In the Q4/2022 outlook, NOAA and CIC are agreeable on the temperature outlook which is broadly warmer than normal across most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is agreeable on dryness across the South U.S. However, CIC is drier on each coast and wetter in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.

Pattern change emerges across Europe with significant rain on the front end likely helping low river levels particularly the Rhine River. Much cooler weather follows the rain for the medium-range with slight risk of <32F/0C in Eastern Europe.

Summer 2022 was hot – again! Summer of 2022 ranked 3rd hottest of 128 years of climatology. Last year ranked the hottest summer on record. Summer of 2020 was 4th hottest on record. One commonality with each summer of the past 3 years is the presence of a La Nina climate.