04/08/2019, 1:17 pm EDT

On Again/Off Again El Nino

An indicator of the atmospheric connection to El Nino warming of the equatorial East Pacific is the southern oscillation index. After a robust EL Nino signature in FEB/MAR the evolving El Nino climate fades as strong +SOI emerges.
03/28/2019, 10:22 am EDT

Wet Soils To Suppress U.S. Summer Heat

A very hot summer 2018 was foreshadowed by a widening dry-to-drought condition. This year widespread record wet soils are evident in the Central Plains, Midwest and East U.S. The soil moisture regime foreshadows a borderline anomalous hot summer ahead.
03/24/2019, 1:28 pm EDT

Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Once again a large "blob" of much warmer than normal ocean water in the tropics/subtropics increased available energy to cause a tropical cyclone to flourish and intensify while moving slowly to cause maximum damage due to a blocking subtropical ridge pole ward of the storm.
03/21/2019, 3:28 pm EDT

Oncoming El Nino (Persistent Negative Southern Oscillation) Lead to Wet FEB/MAR Pattern in U.S.

The atmosphere finally coupled with the equatorial East Pacific warming the past 7 weeks as demonstrated by a persistent negative phase of the southern oscillation index. The evolving El Nino climate helped to inspire heavy precipitation events.