Frequently referred to research identifying PDO/AMO regimes combined influence on U.S. drought risk was published by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt in 2004. The influence of long-term -PDO/+AMO regimes on U.S. drought risk is elevated for the Southwest and West-central U.S. plus Texas and also the Midwest States. The Southwest U.S. to Texas drought is already locked-in while the Midwest U.S. has avoided drought so far. But that will change during mid-to-late summer!

Mega-cluster ensembles maintain the hot and dry Central/Southeast U.S. weather pattern through the end of June. Dryness accompanies the hot weather zones. In Europe, the hot/dry weather shifts eastward and may subside (temporarily) by late month.

The Gulf of Mexico basin average is a balmy 83.2F which is slightly (+0.18F) warmer than normal and moderately cooler (-0.45F) during the past 30 days. The North Atlantic SST threshold for tropical cyclones is 81F/27C which generally covers the entire Gulf except slightly cooler temperatures off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Mexico Coast.

Although oceanic parameters are of moderate La Nina intensity, the strong La Nina atmosphere is likely triggered by the sharp contrast in strong subsidence across the East Pacific tropics compared with an energetic convective regime across the far West Pacific as identified by the May 2022 monthly velocity potential analysis from IRI/LDEO.