One of the weakest La Nina episodes on record fades in March 2018. ENSO forecast expert, Bureau of Meteorology/Australia indicates La Nina officially ends. The outlook is neutral phase for 2018 as returning La Nina or a new El Nino is not expected this year.

The 3rd in a series of 3 Northeast U.S. snow storms is upon us as all of New England is beneath a winter storm warning with blizzard warnings issued for east/southeast Massachusetts. 1-2 feet of snow is likely for much of the region with a storm that begins tonight and roars through most of Tuesday.

Monitoring a Kelvin Wave now moving east of the Dateline and intensifying is extremely important as to a potential rapid dissipation of La Nina during early calendar spring. The dissipation of La Nina process would likely produce extreme storms (flooding) in the U.S. due to the energy release to the atmosphere of a Madden Julian oscillation episode coupled with an oceanic Kelvin Wave.

During the past week or so an excessive rainfall event emerged in the East-Central/Mid-South U.S. The excessive rainfall event was caused by the combination of Madden Julian oscillation and subsurface Kelvin Wave moving across the tropical East Pacific. There are concerns of another such event evolving for early calendar springtime.