Cool relief for the Northeast U.S. according to the 12Z GFS while Mid-south heat is intense days 6-10 and widens days 11-15 from the Great Plains to the Southeast U.S. The 12Z GFS maintains an arc of heavy rain and severe weather from the Midwest U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic States.

Paris/Orly observed a record 208 CDD during July 2026 eclipsing the previous high mark of 192 (2006). June also produced a record CDD and August 2026 is projected in the top five hottest although a hotter value is certainly possible.

The super drought covering much of Europe continues to expand during early August. During the past week, very little rainfall was observed across the southern 2/3 of Europe including the immediate Black Sea region.

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast sizzles to a consensus forecast of 95 for the week of August 6-12. All models, except for CMC ENS, are agreeable. If so, August 6-12 will be the hottest week of summer 2026 across the U.S.