Normally, a strong negative arctic oscillation in late December would cause a hostile cold climate in the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. But the warmer oceans nowadays dilute that risk.

The updated Australia soil moisture analysis for November 2019 identifies a surprising wet change for Interior East Australia centered on northwest New South Wales. Harsh drought continues in eastern New South Wales.

Most of the last 10 winter seasons have been warm to much warmer than normal across the U.S. and the majority have been preceeded by above normal North American snow cover observed in November.

The amount of rainfall to take the Australian drought out of the 10th driest percentile is a whopping 2 to 4 times normal across much of Eastern Australia.