An El Nino climate should develop shortly as announcements on El Nino onset are expected from NOAA shortly. But will the El Nino climate unfold later this month as NOAA indicates?

Short-term heavy rain/high wind the past couple days have affected much of Europe. The Rhine River levels have recovered due to the recent precipitation. However, the strong upper ridge pattern causing the 2018 drought is about to re-establish itself and November looks very dry across Europe.

"Warm blobs" are back! They'll affect November 2018 global climate coupled with increasing influence of El Nino. Some of the November 2018 climate extremes? Record warmth northeast China, heavy snow and Central Russia and harsh heat for Eastern Australia. "Cool blobs" are involved also sustaining European drought.

The largescale climate affecting Australian climate is becoming established: Positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole and the warm phase of El Nino southern oscillation. Combining the two regimes dramatically increases anomalous hot and dry climate risk for Australia for the summer season. The first heat wave is ahead for early November.