03/17/2024, 7:11 am EDT

Transient MJO Causal to Wetter Brazil/Australia/U.S. Midwest Pattern Ahead

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation stretches across Maritime Continent and responsible for an active tropical cyclone pattern affecting Australia including Cateogry-2 Tropical Cyclone Megan on the North Coast. As the MJO shifts eastward and across the equatorial Pacific, the 5th such MJO surge since last September, a wetter pattern for Brazil and the Midwest U.S. generates in 8-14 days.
03/13/2024, 3:51 am EDT

March 2024 Global Soil Moisture 3-Month Observation Trend and Forecast

During meteorological winter, the northern hemisphere received mostly a wetter soil moisture signature largely due to the influence of El Nino. In the U.S., most of the western half of the U.S. observed a wet soil moisture trend. Similarly, the U.S. East Coast trend was wetter particularly in the Northeast Corridor. The drier tendency in the Midwest continued.
03/13/2024, 3:49 am EDT

March 2024 Marine Heatwave/ENSO Discussion and Outlook

Using a different approach to analog ENSO phase for 2024, Climate Impact Company takes a look at the peak ocean heat east of the Dateline late in the year of the ongoing El Nino compared to the loss of upper ocean heat as El Nino weakens the following February.
03/08/2024, 5:33 am EST

Record Warm Tropical South Atlantic Index/El Nino Inspired Hot/Dry Summer Most of Brazil

The tropical South Atlantic continues to observe record warm ocean temperatures. The influence on summer climate of the anomalous warmth was significant. Strong difluence in the upper atmosphere across the warm water zone represents anomalous convection (thunderstorm activity). To compensate for the rising air motion, an area of subsidence (sinking motion) over South America was observed during meteorological summer. The sensible weather result was drier and hotter than normal climate across much of Brazil. Of course, El Nino also enhanced this climate anomaly.