09/16/2021, 6:30 am EDT

Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast For Q4/2021 Identifies Extreme Storm Risk

Extratropical storms in stronger (positive anomaly) flows tend to be stronger and move more slowly. This pattern is responsible for most instances of extreme weather including storm intensity and warmth ahead/cold behind the storm. In an effort to project where extreme storm risk is highest for each month of quarter 4 of 2021 for the U.S. and Europe the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast used to generate sensible temperature and precipitation anomalies is used.
09/12/2021, 12:18 pm EDT

Surprisingly, GFS ENS Matches/Exceeds ECM ENS Skill in Medium-range Past 30 Days

In a surprise, the GFS Ensemble has equaled or exceeded ECM Ensemble in medium-range skill scores (of 2-meter temperature forecasts) during the past 30 days. Regions of the high demand energy East U.S. produced better GFS 9than ECM) ENS skill scores - a rare event!
09/11/2021, 10:16 am EDT

Texas and Mid-Atlantic Coast Tropical Threats Emerging

Several new issues have emerged in the tropics – all of which could impact the U.S. The first is Tropical Disturbance 94L. This system will enter the Bay of Campeche as a low-pressure system today. Over the warm waters of this region, 94L should have no problem strengthening to a tropical depression in 24 hours and a tropical storm within 36-48 hours.
09/09/2021, 12:50 pm EDT

Hottest Summer On Record According to NOAA!

According to NOAA the meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) season of 2021 was the hottest on record given the 127-year climatology. Most of the West U.S. including California set all-time records for hottest summer on record. Nationally, the summer 2021 season was also wet ranking 8th wettest on record. Mississippi observed their wettest summer on record.