The convection phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation has shifted into the tropical East Pacific and helped trigger Hurricane Agatha. Forecasts indicate the MJO shifts to the tropical Atlantic in early June which supports tropical cyclone activity development - most likely in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Nino23 SSTA regions remain consistent in the moderate intensity of La Nina range for mid-May. However, mostly very negative daily southern oscillation index implies the atmosphere is locked-in on strong La Nina presence. Models are indicating some weakening of La Nina for just-after mid-year but no signs of that weakening yet.

The current U.S. Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) clearly identifies much of the southern half of the U.S. as rainfall starved with attendant worsening dry to drought soil moisture. The driest EDDI is located over the Desert Southwest, south-central Nebraska, and parts of eastern Kentucky, the eastern Carolinas and Florida. The northern U.S. has benefited from cool temperatures, snowmelt and wet periods to cause a EDDI wet surplus.