01/22/2018, 9:44 pm EST

Wham! Bam! -AAM! Explains Hostile Global Weather in January 2018

The strongest negative phase of global atmospheric angular momentum (-AAM) index for January on record is projected. Included are daily records of -AAM rivaled only by 1963 (CWG/Storm Vista Data). –AAM is common during La Nina. The –AAM indicates above normal risk of high amplitude flow patterns in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres which increase the risk of high impact weather. During the past 2-3 weeks we’ve seen 75-100 mph wind gust events in New England, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands plus New Zealand and record long duration cold in the U.S. while Australia set 80-year records for anomalous heat. –AAM was the culprit.
01/17/2018, 3:26 pm EST

Why La Nina Was Weak? No -PDO!

All La Nina's are not the same but this one was really different and unusually weak. Normally, waters in the southeast North Pacific are cooler than normal during a La Nina episode characteristic of cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation. But not in 2017. Surface water southwest of California remains unusually warm. This latest "warm blob" prevented, in-part La Nina from realizing more intensity.
01/16/2018, 10:51 am EST

ECMWF ENSO Forcecast Trends Toward El Nino Later This Year

Mature phase La Nina is in-place and projected to end during northern hemisphere spring. ENSO phase for the second half of 2018 is uncertain. ECMWF projects a trend toward El Nino.
01/10/2018, 4:33 pm EST

Stratospheric Warming Caused The Historic U.S. Arctic Outbreak

A stratospheric warming event occurring Dec. 21-25 across northern Canada caused an arctic air mass to emerge in southern Canada touching the northern U.S. Dec. 24-28. The southern periphery of the arctic cold gained snow cover in the following days with resurgent following arctic air growing more intense as the polar vortex intensified and snow cover widened/deepened. The result for early January in the Midwest/East U.S. was a record to near record cold for the first 6-7 days of the New Year.