02/21/2018, 4:44 pm EST

Lower 48 Colder Than Normal in 15 Days

Combination of widening western snow cover and attendant arctic air held in place by the negative phase of the Pacific North America pattern joins forces with a developing negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation flipping the record warmth in the East to colder than normal in 10+ days. The -PNA/-NAO combination push the Lower 48 States to colder than normal in 15 days.
02/19/2018, 9:37 am EST

La Nina CRASH by April

Weak La Nina continues but a recent (warm) subsurface Kelvin Wave into the East Pacific has eroded the cool water supply to sustain La Nina. Near the Dateline the next Kelvin Wave is forming and by April shifts into the eastern equatorial Pacific wiping out La Nina.
02/15/2018, 6:24 pm EST

Will A Returning Warm Phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation Contribute to U.S. Summertime Drought?

The warm phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation is re-emerging. Coupled with an expected warmer than normal North Atlantic during the northern hemisphere warm season in 2018 research by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt have shown a climatological increased risk of drought to the Northwest U.S., Great Plains and Southeast U.S. given these middle latitude oceanic conditions.
02/07/2018, 9:08 am EST

Entering Solar Minima

The January 2018 solar cycle sunspot number is updated by NOAA/SWPC. The observed data identifies a persistent decline in activity and indicates entrance into the solar minima which on average occurs every 11 years. The entrance to solar minima is 1 year ahead of forecast. Implied is another potentially unusually lengthy solar minima as observed in 2008-2010.