The Pacific decadal oscillation flipped to the cool phase in early 2020. There is a tendency for PDO and ENSO to run parallel. Will ENSO flip to La Nina later in 2020?
After nearly 3 months of an active MJO near and west of the Dateline in the tropics a change is ahead...the MJO will shift east toward the tropical Atlantic and Africa in 7+ days. Coincidentally, the positive arctic oscillation collapses. A colder northern hemisphere climate evolves in 10+ days including North America AND Eurasia.
At risk of several to 10+ in. of rain is anywhere from northeast Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) based on a consensus of the 15-day rainfall forecast by GFS, ECM and CMC. The severe weather threat zone will be Texas and the Missouri Valley.