09/11/2018, 10:35 pm EST

Florence Caveat Forecast

The Category 4 Hurricane Florence forecast track toward the North Carolina coast is straight-forward. However, what happens after Florence reaches the North Carolina coast is more uncertain. Evolution of a new tropical cyclone striking Texas late Friday and the influence on a new subtropical ridge over the Midwest U.S. could cause Florence to slow down and possibly shift southwestward this weekend.
09/10/2018, 11:24 am EST

More Hurricanes Than Expected in 2018

Seasonal forecasts by leading providers indicated 5 hurricanes for the 2018 season. However, we're already to 5 and almost certain to eclipse 6-7 which is normal for a season given Sep. 10 is the halfway point of the tropical cyclone season. One of the reasons for increased number of hurricanes is the failure of EL Nino to develop as indicated by multivariate ENSO index which is a measure of the atmosphere's response to ENSO.
09/09/2018, 8:53 am EST

Does a Harvey-Style High Pressure Block Stall Florence in Mid-Atlantic?

As observed last August, a large region of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the west/northwest North Atlantic basin correlated to a blocking high pressure ridge over northeast North America caused Major Hurricane Harvey to stall over Texas and produce 50 in. of rain in the Houston area. A similar set-up is in-place this week (into next) to cause Florence, forecast to become a major hurricane to also stall in the Mid-Atlantic region bringing historical and catastrophic flooding.
09/06/2018, 10:49 am EST

Excellent Environment to Support a Major Hurricane (Florence) off the U.S. East Coast Next Week

Operational forecast models indicate Hurricane Florence will approach and possibly strike the U.S. East Coast mid-to-late next week. The environment to support a major hurricane off the East Coast next week is excellent. Tropical cyclone models indicate Florence returns to major hurricane status southeast of Bermuda early next week. Florence is likely to maintain major hurricane intensity tracking west of Bermuda toward the U.S. East Coast next week.