02/01/2021, 12:31 pm EST

Northern Hemisphere Late Winter Arctic Air Masses

Arctic air masses have been common in Russia this winter season. However, the long-lasting negative arctic oscillation driving that pattern is now producing more widespread arctic air risk as February arrives. The 6-10 day forecast indicates an arctic outbreak into the U.S.
01/27/2021, 7:04 pm EST

Preliminary 2021 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook And 2020 Review

The preliminary 2021 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is attached. The outlook is more active than normal featuring 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 122. The climate conditions feature neutral ENSO and a North Atlantic tropical/subtropical basin not quite as warm as last year.
01/26/2021, 11:43 am EST

Checking Medium-range Temperature Forecast skill Scores of All Models

Not surprisingly the GFS Operational model finishes last in skill scores for forecast 2-meter temperatures in the 6-10 and 11-15 day period across North America. The European Ensemble edges out the American Ensemble for best scores. data provided by CWG/Storm Vista WX Models.
01/24/2021, 12:27 pm EST

Madden Julian Oscillation To Intensify

For the first time since November the Madden Julian oscillation is activated and intensifying in the equatorial Pacific Ocean into early February. The result is increased risk of excessive precipitation in the East-central U.S. and a mild climate pattern east of the Continental Divide as the final month of meteorological winter arrives.