The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates an evolving storm track stretching across the Mediterranean Sea and reaching the Middle East. The wet weather pattern which also affects North Africa is supported by an elongated upper-level low-pressure trough.

A major high wind event extends from the Northern Rockies to the Midwest U.S. today and tonight featuring wind gusts above hurricane force in the northwest Great Plains today, near 70 mph Midwest tonight, and gusting 55-65 mph in the Ohio Valley midday tomorrow. A second storm brings wind gusts to 45-60 mph Sunday night across the Midwest and Ohio Valley shifting across the Northeast Corridor with severe storms on Monday.

A combination of zonal flow in the 1-5-day and 11-15-day period and titanic Southwest U.S. high pressure ridging in the 6-10-day period leaves the west and southwest Great Plains without rain and increasingly very warm in the latest ECM 15-day forecast. Texas to Oklahoma shift wetter in the 16-30-day period while the western Great Plains stay dry and very warm. U.S. hard red winter wheat becomes a hot spot for drought development.

The Climate Impact Company MAR-26 to FEB-28 ENSO phase forecast is based on a constructed analog utilizing upper ocean heat anomalies east of the Dateline, Nino34 SSTA, and southern oscillation index. The upper ocean heat in the eastern equatorial East Pacific became immense during February and is the leading indicator of El Nino risk ahead.