In March, the subsurface equatorial Pacific warmed dramatically. Each NINO region of the equatorial Pacific subsurface is now in support of an El Nino development trend. The change from February is dramatic…much warmer! Normally, the observational trend of subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific can foreshadow a possible phase change of ENSO.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued for the eastern Dakota’s and northern half of Minnesota. A Blizzard Warning is issued for western South Dakota. The GFS indicates a 6-18-inch snowstorm ahead featuring high wind which will push 2-3-foot drifts of snow. Blizzard conditions are likely to extend northeastward.

After a whopping 738 severe weather reports in the Midwest States yesterday with Illinois hardest hit, a large severe weather and windstorm shifts into the East U.S. today. Two bands of severe weather squalls cross the Mid-Atlantic, one this morning and another by early evening. Wind gusts >70 mph affect the central Appalachian States with gusts to 60 mph at the shoreline today into this evening. More high wind for New England tomorrow.

Another round of unusually intense severe weather is forecast for late this week and again in the extended-range across the East-central and Mid-south U.S. according to NOAA. The catalyst to the exceptionally strong severe weather is the increased low atmospheric moisture across the somewhat warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico and the persistent negative Pacific North America (-PNA) pattern propelling an energetic jet stream across Mexico to the Mid-south U.S.