Oceanic El Nino is approaching peak. However, atmospheric El Nino is considerably weaker. Consequently, non-El Nino-like weather regimes are occurring. Examples are incoming heavy rains for India and Southeast Asia, unexpected heavy rains for Eastern Australia, and evolving bitter cold across Europe and Northwest Russia.

Deep layer soil moisture anomalies are trending drier in Central/Southwest Brazil as drought potential in this region increases. The already established deep layer soil moisture dryness in North Brazil persists. The soil moisture dry trend is propelled by anomalous heat so far in November across Brazil. A drier than normal rainfall pattern continues over Northern Brazil and has increased near and east of Bolivia eastward to the Brazil East Coast.

After a vigorous windstorm on Thursday a colder regime settles over Europe and eventually most associated precipitation is snow. Eastern Europe to Interior Southeast Europe has snow on the ground by late month helping to enhance the chilly pattern. The week 2-4 forecast projects milder North Atlantic maritime flow in the extended range to scour away the chill.

The Nino SSTA regions (and subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean) indicate a warming trend in the already very warm central and east-central Pacific equatorial region (Nino34 and Nino4). Implied is an approaching peak of El Nino forecast by most dynamic models in December or January followed by weakening El Nino the first half of 2024.