A robust Madden Julian oscillation convection signal present across Indonesia for the past 2-3 weeks increases tropical cyclone risk and has enhanced the Southeast Asia Monsoon causing excessive rainfall events. The subsidence phase of the MJO stretches across the North Atlantic tropics suppressing tropical waves from forming. The pattern is forecast to last well into August keeping the deep tropics of the North Atlantic absent of tropical cyclone risk.

The dry climate of spring and summer in Central Europe has caused a rapid descent in the Rhine River level the past 30 days with a dry climate pattern likely to continue into early August.

After the warmest May on record the month of June was nearly as impressive ranking 3rd warmest of the past 124 years of record. The anomalous hot July already underway is likely to cause the MAY/JUN/JUL 2018 seasonal temperature anomaly to rank warmest all-time.

Subsurface warmth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is impressive and foreshadows El Nino ahead. Some of the subsurface warming is emerging near the Dateline and East-central equatorial Pacific implying approaching El Nino. However, the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is staying cool. Diagnostics and forecast (models) support this set of circumstances continuing. Emerging is an El Nino ahead biased toward the Dateline rather than the northwest coast of South America. Risk of El Nino Modoki is emerging and if so alerting traditional El Nino climate currently expected for later this year.